iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF) - 2016  (Inactive Symbol)

The following graph plots the year-to-date performance of the stock for 2016 compared to the probability calculated by a random walk model.

Initial Value*: $337.7 Hist. Volatility: 1.74% Annual Drift: 7% Final Value*: $265.4 Percentile: 21%
Click on the image for the high resolution version.

The high to date and low to date prices of the stock plotted against a random walk model for 2016 (what's this?).